AGP Executive Report

Makkah Pact Watch: Bangladesh signals openness to joining the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Türkiye, with Dhaka saying it will weigh the move against national interests and shifting trade dynamics. Israel-Syria Flashpoint: Fresh Israeli strikes hit Syria again, with reports pointing to continued instability and rising friction involving Türkiye. Trade & Tourism: Türkiye’s ambassador to India, Ali Murat Ersoy, says momentum is returning after the 2025 travel boycott, as India-Türkiye ties rebuild through direct engagement with the travel trade and media. Shipping & Logistics: MSC expands its Himalaya Express, adjusting Turkish port rotations while keeping the longer Cape route rather than transiting Bab el-Mandeb. Black Sea Security: A Turkish commercial vessel was attacked off Novorossiysk, leaving one dead and eight injured, underscoring ongoing risks for regional shipping. Finance & ESG: Burgan Bank (Kuwait) gets an MSCI ESG rating upgrade to BBB, a boost for sustainability-focused investors. Turkey-Africa Trade: Turkish exports to Africa rose 12.6% year-on-year to $13.3bn in the first seven months, led by Egypt and Nigeria.

Turkey-Israel Tensions: Israel says it struck Syria’s Abu al-Duhur airbase without warning the US, with a US envoy suggesting the move could have been “baiting the Turks” amid fears of Turkish deployments near the border. Maritime Security: A Turkish-operated commercial vessel was attacked off Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk; one sailor died and eight were injured, with the ship continuing to Türkiye’s Samsun port. Middle East Energy Pressure: Iran allowed some Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iraq pushes to expand exports via Türkiye’s Ceyhan port and alternative routes through Syria and Jordan. Legal/Policy Watch: Turkey’s consumer confidence and business confidence reportedly improved in August, while Turkey also fined 9 digital subscription companies $3.6m. Regional Diplomacy: Bangladesh signaled openness to joining the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Pakistan and Türkiye, framing it as a national-interest-driven option. Global Climate Agenda: China is considering hosting COP33 in 2028, with the UN noting no formal nomination yet.

Turkish Lira Slide: The dollar pushed above 48 lira for the first time, as inflation stays sticky and fiscal worries return, with the budget posting a July deficit of 378.1 billion lira. Market Confidence & Capital: A new push argues Türkiye still isn’t a “natural” destination for global long-term investors, pointing to market architecture, governance and regulatory predictability as key gaps. Regional Security & Lawfare: Türkiye asked Interpol for Red Notices for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Afek Moskovitch over the May Gaza-bound flotilla interception, escalating a legal and diplomatic standoff. Middle East Diplomacy: Pakistan and 11 Muslim-majority countries condemned Israel’s strikes on Syria’s Abu al-Duhur base and urged withdrawal from occupied areas. Mecca Pact Expansion Watch: Syria is reviewing whether to join the Saudi-Pakistan-Türkiye defense framework; Bangladesh signals openness to a wider economic/defence arrangement. Defense Industry: STM says mass production has started for its Neta autonomous underwater vehicle and it’s preparing a prototype fast attack craft. Aviation & Trade: Turkish Airlines plans up to 20% Asia-Pacific expansion, adding capacity and routes as regional demand shifts. Energy & Infrastructure: Iraq’s PM outlined plans for land distribution and aims to expand oil exports via Türkiye’s Ceyhan port, targeting 8–10m bpd within six years. Maritime Risk: Two hijackings near Yemen and Somalia involved 22 Indian crew members, renewing concerns over piracy affecting shipping lanes.

Middle East Diplomacy: Foreign ministers from Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, Pakistan and Indonesia jointly condemned Israel’s E1 West Bank settlement plan, warning it undermines a contiguous Palestinian state and calling for international measures and possible sanctions. Aegean Tensions: Greece rejected Ankara’s latest “marine parks” and broader maritime spatial planning moves, with analysts saying Turkey is pushing a more systematic expansion of its claims in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean. Defense & Industry: FNSS unveiled the U-MAV İ-ZAHA unmanned amphibious vehicle at Teknofest Mavi Vatan, aiming to lead high-threat beach landings with autonomous breach, reconnaissance and counter-drone roles. Aviation & Travel: Turkish Airlines plans up to a 20% increase in Asia-Pacific frequencies to build a second corridor, while AirAsia X is exiting Sydney by suspending its Kuala Lumpur route amid cost pressure. Energy & Trade: Iraq is working to expand oil exports via Türkiye’s Ceyhan port and routes through Syria’s Baniyas and Jordan’s Aqaba as Hormuz disruption continues. Business & Labor: Bernard Matthews confirmed it will close its Derby turkey processing factory by end-2026 due to significant losses and external shocks. Security & Finance: The U.S. re-designated Hezbollah as an Iranian proxy and sanctioned a cash-transfer network linked to Iran’s IRGC, escalating the pressure campaign around the region.

US Sanctions & Hezbollah Finance: The US Treasury (OFAC) imposed sanctions on 10 people tied to a cash-transfer network allegedly moving “hundreds of millions of dollars” for Hezbollah via couriers on commercial flights linking Lebanon, Turkey, the UAE and Iran, and also redesignated Hezbollah as operating “for service to the Iranian regime” under IRGC-Quds Force. Middle East Shipping Risk: With the Iran war disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, reports say Indian seafarers remain trapped and at growing risk, including footage alleging IRGC confrontation in the strait. Turkey-Syria Tensions: Israel is reportedly weighing how it could strike Turkish forces in Syria without triggering NATO’s Article 5, as Ankara’s military role in Syria remains a flashpoint. Defense Industry Showcase: Aselsan debuted its TUFAN kamikaze USV at TEKNOFEST Blue Homeland, signaling continued push in unmanned maritime systems. Politics & Polls: A Gündemar Research poll suggests Erdoğan trails major opposition figures in potential presidential run-offs, while a separate survey points to the new “Yeni Parti” gaining momentum. Labor Dispute: Police attacked protests by mine workers in Ankara over unpaid wages, detaining nearly 100.

Turkey-Syria Tensions: Ankara accused Israel’s Netanyahu of trying to provoke a confrontation with Turkey for election-time political gain after Israeli warnings about Turkish presence in southern Syria. External Debt Watch: Turkey’s gross external debt rose to $539bn at end-June, with private-sector debt the biggest share and short-term liabilities climbing. Aviation Safety in Cyprus: Cyprus’ civil aviation authority said Turkish aircraft presence in Cypriot airspace is a “recurring operational fact” managed daily, after union warnings about flight safety. Defense & Industry: ASELSAN launched Türkiye’s TUFAN unmanned kamikaze maritime drone into the water for the first time, targeting autonomous swarm strike missions. AI Push: GITEX AI Türkiye will run Sept. 9-10 in Istanbul, aiming to train 10,000 AI specialists and boost AI literacy nationwide. Energy & Trade Links: Reports say Russia is seeking energy concessions from Turkey before approving resale of S-400 systems, while Türkiye and Syria signed a phosphate cooperation accord. Sports & Soft Power: Mohamed Salah’s Trabzonspor jersey is already selling in Cairo’s Khan el-Khalili, highlighting growing Egypt-Türkiye football ties.

Syria-Turkey Flashpoint: Israel struck the Abu al-Duhur airbase near Türkiye’s border, escalating a fresh Syria standoff as Ankara rejects claims of Turkish troop deployments and warns of “expansionist” Israeli moves; the US envoy Tom Barrack said the lack of communication raised the risk of direct confrontation. Regional Security Realignment: The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement among Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan is drawing attention for its deterrence message and potential knock-on effects for Gulf and regional diplomacy. Energy & Trade Routes: Japan and Türkiye opposed any Strait of Hormuz transit fees, backing “free and safe navigation” as Iran-US tensions keep shipping constrained. Telecom R&D: Turkcell will join six new EU-backed R&D projects, including 6G and AI work under Horizon Europe, aiming to feed standards and real-world validation. Aegean Renewables Dispute: Türkiye rejected Greece’s new renewable energy spatial framework in the Aegean, saying it has no legal effect on disputed maritime areas. Tourism Watch: Türkiye’s tourism outlook is clouded by Middle East tensions and currency/inflation pressures, pushing more last-minute bookings and price competition. Economy Snapshot: Türkiye’s unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in Q2, with employment reaching 32.48 million.

Turkey–Moldova Business Ties: Turkish MPs met Moldova’s leadership to push deeper trade, investment and Gagauzia-focused cooperation, citing over $1bn in trade and around 1,200 Turkish-capital firms operating in Moldova. Energy & Mining: Türkiye and Syria signed a phosphate cooperation deal covering production, mining development and a planned rail link to a port, while Ankara also moves to start seismic surveys and exploration in Syria. Security & Markets: Iran’s reported consideration of striking US military assets in Europe—named Bulgaria and Cyprus—adds risk to the wider Hormuz/Bab el-Mandeb shipping picture. Iraq Oil Logistics: Iraq approved a three-month mechanism to export crude via alternative routes starting Sept. 1, aiming to reduce Hormuz disruption impacts. Domestic Economy Signals: Türkiye’s unemployment rate fell to 7.9% in Q2, with employment reaching 32.48 million. Aviation/Tech Finance: Kaszek invested in TravelX’s AI revenue management platform, bringing total funding to $45m. Corporate/Industry: Karmod installed modular container structures at a manganese mining site in Gabon, targeting harsh-climate construction needs.

Middle East Energy & Trade: Iraq’s cabinet approved a three-month mechanism for exporting crude starting Sept. 1, using specialized local and international firms and multiple outlets to reduce reliance on Gulf routes amid Strait of Hormuz disruption. Turkey-Iraq Business: A Turkish business delegation met Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi in Baghdad to discuss investment in airports, rail under the Development Road project, metro links, thermal power and solar, dams and agriculture. Israel-Syria-Turkey Tensions: Turkey rejected Israeli claims after strikes hit Syria’s Abu Duhur air base, with Ankara saying the allegations aim to legitimize “unlawful” attacks; the US envoy also called it “unnecessary escalation.” US Tariff Evasion Watch: A White House report flags Turkey among countries with elevated risk of goods transshipped through third territories to avoid US tariffs on Chinese products. Regional Security Deal: Opinion coverage highlights the Mecca Joint Defense Pact (Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan) as a potential new security order—“not NATO yet,” but a strategic insurance move. Turkic Trade: Turkey’s trade with Turkic states hit $9.4bn in the first half, led by Kazakhstan, as Ankara pushes construction, energy, transport and logistics ties. AI Policy Push: Türkiye officially unveiled a 2026-2030 AI action plan aimed at tech sovereignty and global leadership.

Trade & Growth: Turkey’s exports have climbed nearly 9x over 25 years to $273.3bn in 2025, while services exports rose 8x to $122.6bn, lifting the combined goods-and-services total to about $396bn. Border Security Tech: Turkey is rolling out an AI “detective border” approach to curb trade fraud. AI Policy Push: Türkiye officially launched an AI action plan through 2030, aiming for tech sovereignty. Budget Watch: Turkey’s July budget deficit widened sharply, with interest payments cited as a key driver. Retail in Russia: Several Turkish brands are scaling back or exiting Russia as costs rise and competition from online and cheaper imports bites. Regional Defense: Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, while analysts debate whether it can replace US security reliance. Maritime Risk: A ship was hit in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran says the strait stays closed until US conditions are met. Energy Corridor: Armenia is at risk of being left out of a regional electricity transit plan via Georgia, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Bulgaria.

Counterterror Legal Update: Türkiye’s “Terror-Free Türkiye” framework law was published in the Official Gazette, setting rules to suspend certain PKK/KCK-linked investigations, prosecutions and sentences for up to five years after security bodies confirm the group has ended activities and surrendered weapons. Libya Diplomacy & Energy Geopolitics: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited Khalifa Haftar’s eastern Libya base in Benghazi, boosting Ankara’s access to both sides of the divided country and adding pressure to regional energy and security calculations in the Eastern Mediterranean. Trade Facilitation: Türkiye is expanding and modernizing multiple customs crossings on the Syria border (including Cilvegözü, Akçakale, Öncüpınar, Çobanbey and Karkamış) to raise capacity and support growing bilateral trade and transit. Digital Economy: Xsolla added 15+ local payment methods to Xsolla Payments, aiming to help game developers sell with familiar payment options across Asia-Pacific, Europe and the Americas. Media & Platforms: YouTube will switch to counting public views from the first frame of playback starting Aug. 24, aligning long-form metrics with Shorts. Defense Industry Watch: Turkish-linked regional security chatter continues around the Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan “Mecca” defense pact and its implications for Iran and Gaza.

Turkey-EU Relations: Erdoğan said EU membership is “no longer a priority” for Ankara, while insisting the door remains open if Europe accepts Turkey. Public Finance: Türkiye’s central government budget posted a 378 billion lira deficit in July, with interest payments driving the swing; Şimşek says fiscal discipline remains intact despite the deterioration. Earthquake Preparedness: A new warning highlights that 42% of Turkish homes still lack earthquake insurance, 27 years after the Marmara disaster. Maritime & Environment: Turkey established two marine national parks in the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean, drawing Greek protests over alleged illegality beyond Turkish waters. Tech & Business Events: GITEX Ai Türkiye is set to debut in Istanbul, positioning Türkiye as an AI investment hub for global startups and VCs. Defense & Security: Turkey’s police raid on an alleged ISIL cell in Yalova reportedly killed three officers; separately, reports say Patriot missile shortages are hurting Ukraine’s air defense. Regional Geopolitics: The US-Iran 60-day MoU expired with no deal, while Trump warned Oman against any Hormuz arrangement with Iran. Sports Business: Manchester United reiterated Bruno Fernandes is “not for sale,” despite Galatasaray-linked interest.

Earthquake Risk: Turkey’s DASK says 42% of homes still lack compulsory earthquake insurance, with 11.7 million properties insured and coverage lowest in the Black Sea region. Middle East Shipping & Energy: Erdoğan renewed calls for free, fee-free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, as negotiations with Iran remain stalled and fuel-price pressure stays in focus. Defence Cooperation: The Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan “Mecca” joint defence pact is being framed as a NATO-style collective deterrence step, with Trump calling it an “important first step” and analysts debating whether it’s more signalling than immediate military integration. Office & Property Costs: Istanbul office rents hit a record high, rising 13%—a fresh cost signal for businesses planning expansion. Telecom Offers: BSNL launched new plans including a ₹2,399 package with 412 days’ validity and a satellite phone option priced at ₹1.12 lakh, aimed at remote and security-related needs. Consumer Tech: Smartphone shipments across the Middle East (excluding Turkey) fell 19% y/y in Q2 2026 as higher prices and uncertainty curb demand. Sports Business: Transfer talk around Victor Osimhen and Arsenal continues, with Galatasaray issuing a “hands off” message amid reports of a potential £60m-plus offer.

Renewables Deal: Türkiye and Saudi Arabia plan to expand renewable energy cooperation by adding 3,000 MW at COP31 in Antalya, taking the total planned capacity in Türkiye to 5,000 MW. Health Localization: Turkey’s Health Minister says the country is moving toward full domestic production of vaccines, medicines and strategic medical devices, with contracts for at least six vaccines expected soon. FDI Watch: YASED reports Türkiye attracted $4.2bn in foreign direct investment in Jan–Jun 2026, with wholesale/retail the biggest share of investment capital. Aviation & Travel: Pegasus posted a loss in Q2 as Middle East disruption cut international passengers, while domestic demand helped cushion the impact. Energy & Industry: OQ Exploration and Production said H1 net profit rose 19.4% to RO199m, supported by higher oil prices and sales volumes. Tech & Defense: Havelsan unveiled ORION, a domestic AI-ready data management platform, while TUSAŞ shared imagery of ANKA III carrying SÜPER ŞİMŞEK wingmen. Transport & Logistics: Turkish Airlines plans to shift freighter operations to Navi Mumbai, as the airport ramps up cargo services with new approvals. Security & Courts: A Turkish court ordered the arrest pending trial of Süleymancılar leader Alihan Kuriş and 31 others in a money-laundering and corruption probe. Domestic Politics: Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş reiterated “terror-free Türkiye” and vowed no room for separatist agendas.

Makkah Pact Expansion Watch: Turkish President Erdoğan said Egypt could join the Türkiye–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan Mecca collective defence deal, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all, while Ankara also pushes to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and credits Qatar’s mediation. Regional Security Shift: Analysts and reporting highlight Gulf frustration with long-running Iran tensions and growing doubts about U.S. guarantees, with Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad building a new deterrence framework outside traditional channels. Energy & Trade Ripple Effects: The Hormuz standoff is again driving market anxiety, with U.S. officials warning Americans to brace for higher fuel costs as Iran rejects any idea of losing control of the chokepoint. Turkey-Iraq Energy Update: Turkey let the Kirkuk–Ceyhan pipeline framework expire, then signed a short-term transit arrangement for 750,000 bpd pending a broader energy cooperation deal. Business & Mobility: Turkish Airlines is set to expand activity in Dhaka via a second ActivePulse half marathon, while Turkey also faces scrutiny over visa-appointment reselling and black-market activity. Sports Business Angle: Galatasaray’s title defence starts with a 2-2 draw; Victor Osimhen called it a “wake-up call,” underlining pressure on the club’s squad planning.

Turkey–Ukraine Arms Row: Russia warned it will cause “serious damage” to ties with the US and Turkey over claims Ankara plans to re-export US-made weapons to Kyiv. Tourism & Cost Pressure: The Iran-war effect is showing on Turkey’s coast—hotel prices fell in Antalya and Muğla, while some tour operators reported weaker demand and more last-minute discounting. Visa Black Market Crackdown: Istanbul prosecutors arrested 37 people accused of using bots to grab consulate visa slots and charging large fees; authorities cite billions of liras in linked transactions. Border Security Update: Türkiye’s envoy says major security threats along the Syria border have “disappeared” after the new administration took over. Regional Trade & Logistics: Syria and Turkey discussed free zone development and port operations in Mersin, aiming to boost investment and bilateral trade. Tech & Business: Ryanair signed a five-year Google Cloud AI partnership to scale operations for its growth targets. Sports Business: Galatasaray rejected Arsenal’s Osimhen interest, while the transfer talk continues to swirl around the striker.