AGP Executive Report

NATO & Defence Spending: Turkey hosted the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, but analysts say the meeting highlighted deep splits over military spending targets, Iran and Ukraine policy, and wider transatlantic politics. Energy Corridors: Iraq and Turkey are set to extend their Iraq–Turkey crude pipeline transit deal to keep oil flowing to Ceyhan, a key alternative as Strait of Hormuz risks disrupt global routes. Iraq-US Investment Push: US firms signed about $60bn in agreements with Iraq, with major focus on energy and infrastructure projects aimed at diversifying export routes. Middle East Escalation: Iran says US strikes have killed at least 50 and injured 500+ while leaving 10,000 people without water after a desalination plant was hit; Iran also claims further drone and missile attacks on Gulf targets. Security at Home: Turkish forces detained 119 suspected ISIS-linked people across 30 provinces, including charges tied to propaganda and financing. Business & Energy Transition: KFAED inaugurated a 6MW solar plant in Kahramanmaraş to support refugee-host communities with renewable power. Sports Business: Besiktas reportedly made an offer for Mohamed Salah, with talks focused on reducing his wage demands.

F-35/S-400 Talks: Senior Turkish officials say Ankara is “closer” to resolving its disputes with the US over the F-35 fighter program and Russia’s S-400, after constructive meetings in Washington—raising hopes of a workable path back into the jet programme. Middle East Energy Routes: With Iran threatening the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq is pushing overland and pipeline alternatives, including truck convoys through Syria and new/renewed pipeline plans aimed at keeping crude and fuel exports flowing to Mediterranean terminals. US Sanctions Push: A US bill targeting Russia sanctions is moving toward passage after a softened compromise, with potential tariff measures tied to countries buying Russian oil and gas. Security Operations: Turkey’s interior ministry says it arrested 119 people over alleged ISIL links in a nationwide operation. Somalia Mandate: President Erdoğan submitted a bill to extend Turkey’s military mission in Somalia for two more years, citing counterterrorism and training needs. Turkey-Qatar Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is set to visit Qatar to deepen strategic cooperation and discuss Gulf tensions and connectivity. Cybercrime: Kaspersky reports a GitHub-based malware campaign targeting crypto investors via fake repositories. Domestic Rights Tensions: Police attacked a KESK vigil in Ankara, detaining trade unionists during a protest tied to reinstatement demands for workers dismissed under emergency decrees.

NATO Politics & Defense Spending: Turkey hosted the Ankara NATO summit where U.S. President Donald Trump praised “tremendous love” but critics say the meeting highlighted deep alliance rifts over spending targets, Iran and Ukraine, and even trade threats—especially after Spain was singled out for not backing the full 5% goal. Energy Corridors for Iraq: Turkey and Iraq are moving toward a 12-month extension of the Iraq–Turkey crude pipeline transit deal to keep exports flowing to Ceyhan, as Iraq seeks alternatives while Strait of Hormuz risks keep energy markets jittery. US-Iraq Deals to Cut Gulf Dependence: U.S. firms signed about $60bn in agreements with Iraq, including projects aimed at creating new oil shipping routes beyond the Persian Gulf, though timelines for pipelines remain long. Turkey–US Defense Talks: Turkey says it is “closer” to resolving CAATSA and the F-35 dispute with the U.S., citing a joint working group and growing confidence in delivery on a future deal. Customs & Trade with Armenia: Turkey has adjusted its customs system so Armenia’s official country code can be used in declarations for trade via third countries, aiming to boost bilateral turnover. Cyprus Energy Tension: Turkey has reportedly started work on a gas pipeline from its southern coast to occupied north Cyprus, with officials already discussing possible reverse flows toward Europe. Business & Security Backdrop: The week also underscored how regional conflict and NATO politics are reshaping investment, logistics and energy planning across the Middle East and Europe.

NATO & Diplomacy: Turkey hosted a high-profile NATO summit in Ankara, but analysts say the show of unity masked deep divisions over defense spending, Iran and Ukraine, with U.S.-Spain friction still simmering. Judicial Reform: Türkiye’s parliament approved the 12th judicial package, tightening timelines in civil cases and expanding video hearings, while leaving several previously planned social-media and gender-related measures for separate bills. Energy & Trade Routes: Turkey and Iraq are moving toward a 12-month extension of the Iraq-Türkiye crude pipeline deal to keep Ceyhan exports flowing as Hormuz risks push demand for bypass routes. AI & Speech Controls: A Meta Oversight Board study warns AI chatbots may “censor by proxy,” refusing criticism of restrictive governments more often than permissive ones. Housing Market: Home sales rose 15.8% in June, with mortgage-backed purchases surging 72.1%, while foreign buying also rebounded. Business & Industry: EDGE agreed to acquire Brazil’s AKAER to expand aerospace engineering and unmanned aviation capabilities. Sports Integrity: Turkish authorities detained 19 football club executives in an illegal betting and match-fixing probe. Legal Crackdowns: Courts ordered arrests tied to the 2009 Muhsin Yazıcıoğlu helicopter crash, with prosecutors linking the case to FETÖ.

Turkey–Ukraine Diplomacy: Zelenskyy met Turkish FM Hakan Fidan in Kyiv, awarded him the Order of Merit and said Türkiye confirmed readiness to help arrange a leaders’ meeting to end the war, while also pointing to expanding trade and the Ukraine–Türkiye free trade agreement. EU Defence Industry: The EU and Ukraine sealed a “drone deal” to scale production via joint ventures, with anti-ballistic missile integration targeted by 2028—building on Zelenskiy’s growing drone partnerships signed around the Ankara NATO summit. NATO Ankara Fallout: Analysts say the summit highlighted NATO’s internal divisions over spending and strategy, even as leaders endorsed a shift toward higher defence spending and longer-term support for Ukraine. Energy Transit Watch: Turkey and Iraq are expected to sign a 12-month extension for the Iraq–Turkey crude pipeline to avoid expiry and keep exports flowing to Ceyhan, as Hormuz disruptions keep the northern route critical. AI Governance: A Meta Oversight Board study warns major AI systems may refuse to criticize restrictive governments, raising concerns about AI spreading limits on online speech. Trade Snapshot: Türkiye’s exports to the EU rose 4.7% y/y in H1 2026 to $54.6bn, with autos leading.

Turkey’s Public Finance: Türkiye’s central government budget swung to a surplus of TL 114.2bn (about $2.4bn) in June, with revenue up 66% year-on-year as tax collections surged, while spending rose 12.6%, according to Treasury data. Free Zones Trade: Exports from Türkiye’s 19 free zones hit a record $6.6bn in the first half (+6.2% y/y), with June exports also setting a new high at $1.2bn (+29.5%). NATO Summit Spillover: Ankara estimates the NATO leaders’ summit delivered roughly TL 800–900m ($19m) to the city economy via hotels, dining, transport and shopping. Nuclear Investment Push: Parliament’s budget committee approved an omnibus bill adding tax incentives for new nuclear power plant investments, including corporate tax, VAT and stamp tax exemptions (not aimed at Akkuyu). EU Trade Talks: Trade Minister Ömer Bolat heads to Brussels to protect Türkiye–EU supply chains and defend the Customs Union amid EU industrial policy shifts. Local Governance Probe: Istanbul’s Beykoz Municipality graft probe widened with a second wave of detentions over alleged bribery and extortion. Energy Corridor Watch: Turkey and Iraq are expected to sign a 12-month extension to keep the Iraq–Turkey crude pipeline running past July 27.

NATO Summit Fallout: Trump wrapped up the Ankara NATO summit saying there was “tremendous love,” but analysts say the meeting laid bare deep rifts over spending, Iran, Ukraine, sovereignty and democracy—while Spain faced sharp criticism over not meeting higher defense targets. Energy & Trade Security: Turkey and Iraq are moving toward a 12-month extension of the Iraq–Turkey crude oil pipeline deal to keep Ceyhan exports flowing as Hormuz disruption reshapes routes. Turkish Diplomacy in Focus: Pakistan’s information minister Attaullah Tarar said Islamabad and Türkiye will further strengthen ties, marking the 10th anniversary of Türkiye’s Democracy and National Unity Day. Ukraine Coordination: Zelensky met leaders at the Ukraine–Southeast Europe Summit, stressing Ukraine’s role in Euro-Atlantic security and calling for tighter partner coordination. Business & Mobility: Kuwait’s cabinet approved a reform to turn Kuwait Airways into a fully state-owned shareholding company, alongside updates on credit ratings and policy initiatives. Sports Business: Mason Greenwood signed for Fenerbahçe on a four-year deal, with the club paying Marseille €39m.

NATO Ankara Summit: Trump wrapped up the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara amid sharp public feuds and competing security visions, with analysts warning the alliance avoided rupture but not the deeper question of whether the US commitment to Europe can hold. Defense & Industry: The summit also fed a new push for military-industrial cooperation and higher spending, while the wider debate sharpened around how support for Ukraine is being framed as a strategic tool. Turkey–Ukraine Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is set for talks in Kyiv focused on deepening strategic ties, with an emphasis on economy, energy and defense, and on preventing the war from spreading to the Black Sea. EU Drone Deal: The EU and Ukraine agreed a bloc-wide drone production framework, pairing Kyiv’s battlefield know-how with European industrial capacity. Energy Security (Turkey–Iraq): Turkey and Iraq are expected to extend the 12-month Iraq–Turkey crude oil pipeline deal to keep Ceyhan exports flowing as the July 27 deadline nears. Tourism: Türkiye ranked fourth for international visitor growth (2019–2025) in an OECD report, up 21%, as geopolitical and climate risks continue to sway demand. Logistics Upgrade: Turkish Cargo is expanding SMARTIST 2.0 at Istanbul Airport to lift annual cargo capacity from 2m to 4.5m tonnes.

NATO Ankara Summit Fallout: Trump said the 2026 NATO summit delivered “tremendous love,” but analysts say the meeting laid bare deep splits over spending, Iran, Ukraine and sovereignty, with Washington pressing allies harder on defence budgets. Middle East Energy Pressure: With the Strait of Hormuz under renewed strain, the US backed efforts to revive an Iraq-Syria oil pipeline to bypass Tehran’s leverage, while Gulf states weigh new pipelines and ports to reduce chokepoint risk. Turkey-Iraq Oil Route: Turkey and Iraq are set to extend their 12-month Iraq-Türkiye crude pipeline deal to keep Ceyhan exports flowing as the transit agreement nears expiry. Iraq’s Opec Push: Iraq’s PM Al-Zaidi told Trump he wants a “fair share” in Opec and is seeking more investment to raise output. Hepsiburada Capital Move: Hepsiburada called an extraordinary general assembly for Aug. 14 to authorize a TRY 9.32bn share capital increase. Defence Diplomacy: Turkish lawmakers’ Washington talks focused on defence cooperation and regional security, including discussions tied to F-35 delivery expectations. Markets & Gold Mood: A WSJ report says major corporations are hoarding cash, boosting interest in safe havens like gold amid uncertainty.

NATO Ankara Fallout: Turkey hosted the 2026 NATO summit, but analysts say the meeting laid bare deep splits over spending, Iran and Ukraine priorities, and alliance politics—while Trump pressed allies (notably Spain) on meeting higher defense targets. Energy & Trade Security: Turkey and Iraq are moving toward a 12-month extension of the Iraq–Turkey crude pipeline transit deal to keep exports flowing via Ceyhan as Hormuz risks disrupt routes. Regional Naval Signals: Turkish naval ships visited Syria’s Latakia port, with Ankara saying naval cooperation and solidarity are expanding—raising wider Eastern Mediterranean concerns. Defense Tech Milestone: Baykar says its KIZILELMA S2 serial drone successfully fired ROKETSAN’s JET-230 supersonic missile from 120+ km, strengthening Turkey’s long-range unmanned strike capability. Turkey Economy Pulse: TurkStat reports May turnover rose 32.9% year-on-year, led by industry (+36.6%) and services (+34.8%), with construction and trade also expanding. EU Trade Step: Ukraine’s parliament ratified the free trade agreement with Turkey, aiming to cut duties and expand market access for both sides. EU Enlargement: The EU advanced accession talks for Albania, Montenegro, Moldova and Ukraine in a major “Super Tuesday” push.

NATO & Defense Diplomacy: Turkey hosted the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, but analysts say the meeting laid bare deep splits over spending, Iran and Ukraine, with Trump pressing allies—especially Spain—on defense targets while Erdoğan framed the summit as a platform for Turkey to push dialogue on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and advance anti-drone efforts. Energy Security: Turkey and Iraq are moving to extend their Iraq–Türkiye crude oil pipeline deal for 12 months to keep exports flowing via Ceyhan as Gulf shipping faces renewed pressure from the Hormuz crisis. EU-Turkey Eastern Med Tensions: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged Turkey to respect Cyprus’ sovereignty after a Turkey–TRNC gas pipeline memorandum, escalating Brussels’ pushback on Ankara’s Eastern Mediterranean moves. Ukraine Missile Production: France says Ukraine is in line for a license to produce Aster 30 interceptors domestically, while a “coalition of the willing” in Paris reaffirmed support for Ukraine and called for a ceasefire and direct talks. Corporate Finance: Vestel hired Houlihan Lokey to lead talks on restructuring its $500mn eurobond, with the bond trading at distressed levels. Trade Policy: Pakistan’s NTC imposed five-year anti-dumping duties on soda ash imports from Türkiye (and Kenya), citing injury to domestic producers. Turkey-U.S. Ties: Erdoğan said Türkiye will continue cooperating with Trump to boost bilateral trade toward $100bn.

NATO Summit Fallout: Turkey hosted the July 9 Ankara NATO summit, but analysts say it laid bare deep rifts over defense spending, Iran and Ukraine, and political direction—while Trump pressed allies, with Spain singled out over NATO payment targets. Energy Transit Watch: Turkey and Iraq are moving to extend the Iraq–Turkey crude pipeline deal for 12 months to keep Ceyhan exports flowing as Hormuz disruptions reshape routes. Defense Industry: AeroVironment says Italy has granted an MQ-31A designation for its JUMP 20 drone system, marking formal recognition by Italy’s MoD and supporting NATO interoperability. Oil & Gas Potential: A U.S. firm says Türkiye’s Diyarbakır Basin could reach up to 250,000 bpd of oil and 25m cubic meters of gas daily, depending on development pace. Cyprus Diplomacy: The EU appointed Raffaele Fitto as its senior Cyprus envoy to help restart UN-led talks and confidence-building steps. Charity Under Scrutiny: Turkish singer Haluk Levent was detained in an investigation into alleged money laundering and irregularities at the Ahbap charity. Local Economy Signals: Türkiye’s current account deficit narrowed to a multi-month low, with May data cited at $1.46bn.

Energy & Trade: Turkey and Iraq are moving toward a 12-month extension of the Iraq–Türkiye crude oil pipeline transit deal to avoid a July 27 expiry, keeping flows to Ceyhan as Hormuz disruptions keep pushing crude toward the northern route. NATO & Defence Industry: Turkey’s Ankara summit continues to ripple through procurement talks, with renewed focus on Patriot supply and the wider defence-industrial push—while Israeli officials say any potential F-35 path for Türkiye would face US limits but could be worked around. Regional Security: The US and Iran trade fresh strikes as the Strait of Hormuz stays volatile, with shipping rerouting and legal cover for Iranian oil sales being pulled back. Diplomacy & Sanctions: Syria’s leadership is back in the spotlight after US moves to start the process to remove Syria from the state sponsor of terrorism list, aiming to unlock investment and recovery. Civil Society & Governance: Turkish police arrest rock star Haluk Levent over alleged corruption-linked AHBAP charity activity, adding pressure to scrutiny of NGO finances. Circular Economy: Türkiye’s Zero Waste initiative expands textile recycling via clothing donation bins at PTT centers, sorting and reusing wearable items while recycling the rest. Business/Markets: Turkey’s automotive production reportedly fell 6% in H1 2026, while exports to distant markets keep climbing.

Energy & Trade: Turkey and Iraq are set to sign a 12-month extension of the Iraq–Turkey crude oil pipeline deal to keep flows to Ceyhan running beyond July 27, with the minister saying the protocol is in the final stages. Exports Watch: Turkish ship, yacht and services exports hit $1.5B in the first half, and the sector is aiming for a new record of $2.5B–$3B by year-end. Market Activity: Borsa Istanbul saw 16 IPOs in the first half of 2026, with activity picking up as seven more companies received approval to list. Renewables: Turkey’s YEKA 2026 plan will launch 14 solar and seven wind tenders, adding 2,400MW of capacity, with applications due Oct. 13. Business Outlook: Türkiye’s exports to “distant countries” rose 12.2% to $14.3B in H1 as firms diversify amid global trade stress. Governance & Security: Justice Minister Akın Gürlek says the fight against FETÖ is ongoing, warning the group is trying to revive via front companies and social media. Press Freedom: The US DOJ subpoenaed New York Times journalists over reporting on security concerns tied to the new Qatari-gifted Air Force One.

Turkey–Lebanon Diplomacy: Erdogan met Lebanon’s PM Nawaf Salam in Istanbul, with Ankara pushing to keep Lebanon from shifting from Iranian influence to an Israeli one, while stressing sovereignty and negotiations. Middle East Trade Routes: Iran is reportedly worried about the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) as a Hormuz-bypassing alternative for goods and energy. Energy & Logistics: Turkey and Iraq are moving toward a 12-month extension to keep the Kirkuk–Ceyhan crude pipeline running, aiming to protect export flows. Defence Industry & Markets: Aselsan led Turkish defence stocks with a 49% first-half return; the company also signed a €1.47bn air defence deal. NATO Finance: Turkey is still evaluating Canada’s proposed Defence, Security and Resilience Bank despite joining NATO-linked discussions. Health Policy: Turkey is fining and suspending over 100 doctors over alleged overuse of C-sections, as the government targets birth-rate reversal. Press Freedom (US): DOJ subpoenaed NYT reporters over Air Force One security reporting, adding pressure on media freedom.

Central Banking Watch: CBRT Governor Fatih Karahan said June inflation eased to 32.1% and that softer rent and education pricing is helping disinflation in services, while demand remains solid and FX demand for lira is limited. Defense Industry: ASELSAN signed a €1.47bn air-defense contract for serial production under the Steel Dome architecture, reinforcing Turkey’s layered air defense ecosystem. NATO & Turkey’s Role: Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called the Ankara NATO summit “historic,” highlighting burden-sharing becoming an implementable policy and pushing a shared industrial “ecosystem” across allies. Turkey-Oman Real Estate Links: Oman’s housing delegation met Turkish counterparts to expand investment and partnerships for urban projects, with field visits to major developments. Regional Energy & Trade: Oman reported an OMR2.09bn trade surplus by end-April, driven by exports and a sharp jump in re-exports. Political Risk in Ankara: Turkish police detained 27 in raids tied to a corruption probe targeting CHP-run Çankaya district, the latest in a series of cases against opposition municipalities. Global Markets Signal: SK Hynix’s Nasdaq debut followed a record $26.5bn U.S. listing, underscoring the AI-driven demand for high-bandwidth memory.