AGP Executive Report

Digital Investment: Türkiye has broken ground on a 22-megawatt Ankara data center, a Rönesans Holding–Digital Realty venture. The project could bring total investment to $4.1 billion as the country seeks to become a regional technology hub. Trade Corridors: The Iraq–Türkiye Development Road is expected to contribute $55 billion to Türkiye’s economy over the next decade, Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloğlu said. Markets: Capital Markets Board chief Mahmut Sütçü resigned citing health reasons as the fund crisis deepens; interim payments to affected investors are expected after legislation passes. Türkiye’s short-term external debt stood at $177 billion in August, while Fitch warned of rising risks for leasing and factoring firms. Business Climate: 93,095 small businesses closed in the first nine months of the year. Flood Costs: Istanbul’s deadly floods affected about 3,000 properties, with insurers setting aside $40 million for claims.

Digital Payments: Turkey-based tpay was selected to aggregate Vodafone Qatar’s direct carrier billing, opening its mobile-payment network to digital merchants. Fuel Security: Istanbul Airport has built up 350 million litres of jet fuel—enough for about three weeks of operations—as conflict disrupts supply routes. Trade & Industry: Turkish carpet exports topped $2 billion in the first nine months of 2026, while the trade minister says export value per kilogram is rising as high-tech sectors grow. Energy: Türkiye’s first floating Black Sea gas-production platform marks a new step in domestic energy, with plans to double output. Investment & Public Finances: Foreign direct investment fell 35% to $6.85 billion in the first eight months, and the September budget deficit reached 532 billion lira. Defense: The industry expects new contracts to reach $20 billion by year-end; Türkiye exported more than $10 billion in defense and aerospace products in 2025.

Defense Industry: Türkiye has signed $15 billion in defense contracts so far this year and expects the total to reach $20 billion by year-end. Energy: The Osman Gazi floating production platform marks a new step in domestic energy, while Türkiye plans to raise oil output to 550,000 barrels per day by 2028. Exports: Carpet exports topped $2 billion in the first nine months of 2026, and the trade minister says export value per kilogram is rising as high-tech sectors grow. Investment: Foreign direct investment fell 35% to $6.85 billion in the first eight months of the year. Trade Ties: Türkiye and Cambodia agreed to deepen business links, with a bilateral trade target of $1 billion.

Energy: Türkiye plans to lift oil output to 550,000 barrels a day by 2028, up from about 300,000, while the Osman Gazi floating platform heads to the Sakarya gas field. The first Akkuyu nuclear reactor is also targeted for initial start-up by year-end. Trade: Türkiye’s trade with the EU reached a record $233 billion as talks on modernising the Customs Union advance. Ankara and Phnom Penh are pursuing a $1 billion trade target, with leaders also seeking closer business and investment ties. Regional Links: At an OIC meeting in Baghdad, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan discussed expanding Türkiye-Iraq cooperation in trade and energy. Exports: Türkiye reported more than $10 billion in defence and aerospace exports in 2025, while high-tech industries helped push export value per kilogram higher. Outlook: The government expects the economy to grow 4.2% in 2027.

Energy: Türkiye plans to lift oil output to 550,000 barrels a day by 2028, with a longer-term goal of 1 million. The Osman Gazi platform is expected to double Black Sea gas production to 20 million cubic metres daily in 2027. Aviation: Turkish Airlines and CFM signed a framework covering more than 300 LEAP engines and support for over 600, strengthening the airline’s fleet plans. Markets: The securities regulator has referred 37 people for prosecution over suspected share manipulation linked to the investment-fund turmoil; 131 funds were ordered into liquidation, affecting more than 455,000 investors. Trade and exports: Türkiye’s trade with the EU has reached a record $233 billion as customs-union talks advance. Officials say exports are earning more per kilogram as high-tech sectors grow, while defense and aerospace exports topped $10 billion in 2025. Outlook: Türkiye expects 4.2% economic growth in 2027, while year-end inflation expectations remain at 29.6%. New markets: Türkiye and Cambodia are targeting $1 billion in bilateral trade, and Turkish and Armenian officials discussed prospects for direct trade.

Exports & Industry: Türkiye’s average export value climbed to $1.73 per kilogram in September, with defense exports averaging $61.5 per kilogram. Erdoğan said defense and aerospace exports topped $10 billion in 2025, reaching 180 markets. Aviation: Turkish Airlines signed a framework with CFM covering more than 600 LEAP-1B engines. Growth & Markets: Türkiye expects 4.2% growth in 2027, while inflation expectations remain at 29.6%. MSCI has frozen changes to Turkish stock indexes and warned of a possible market downgrade. Energy: Wind and solar now make up one-third of installed power capacity, helping cut fuel costs; Türkiye plans to expand renewables and aims to start Akkuyu’s first reactor by year-end. Trade Ties: Türkiye and Cambodia pledged to deepen business ties, with a $1 billion trade target. Istanbul Floods: Historic flooding killed four people and damaged hundreds of businesses.

Growth Outlook: Türkiye expects the economy to expand 4.2% in 2027, with inflation easing to 21% and the current-account deficit falling below 2% of GDP, Deputy President Cevdet Yılmaz said. Markets: MSCI froze some changes to Turkish indexes and warned of a possible downgrade, while officials aim to tighten rules against capital-market abuse by early 2027. Trade: Cambodia and Türkiye are targeting $1 billion in bilateral trade, and officials from Türkiye and Armenia discussed procedures for direct trade—though the border remains closed. Energy & Aviation: Rosatom says Akkuyu’s first reactor could reach initial start-up by year-end. Turkish Airlines also agreed a framework deal with CFM for more than 300 aircraft engines. Shipping: Ukraine says disruption to Black Sea ports puts about $10 billion in agricultural exports at risk and has asked Türkiye to help restore safe shipping. Istanbul Floods: The deadly downpour also damaged around 300 businesses, adding to the city’s recovery burden.

Crypto: Hex founder Richard Heart was arrested in Istanbul under an Interpol warrant; Turkish media reported authorities seized cash, luxury watches and electronics. Markets: MSCI froze certain changes to Turkey’s equity indexes over concerns about free-float data and possible coordinated trading, warning of a potential downgrade by mid-2027. Investment: Foreign direct investment fell 35% to $6.85 billion in the first eight months of 2026, while the September budget deficit reached 532 billion lira. Energy: Türkiye’s first floating production platform is set to enter the Black Sea, with plans to double gas output. Trade and industry: Ankara urged the EU to include Türkiye in its “Made in Europe” plan. Turkish shipbuilder Kuzey Star agreed to buy 97.13% of Croatia’s Uljanik for €12.05 million, while Türkiye and Spain plan to develop a joint Hürjet trainer aircraft.

EU Trade: Türkiye-EU trade reached a record $233 billion as customs union talks advanced, while Ankara pressed to be included in the EU’s “Made in Europe” industrial plan. Fund Crisis: A parliamentary committee approved interim repayments of up to 1 million lira for eligible investors affected by the fund scandal; authorities are also tracing assets abroad. Investment: Foreign direct investment fell 35% to $6.85 billion in the first eight months of 2026, while foreign investors sold $1.8 billion in Turkish bonds amid the market turmoil. Public Finances: Türkiye’s budget deficit reached 532 billion lira in September. Energy: The country plans to double Black Sea gas output with its first floating production platform. Mobility: Türkiye’s electric-car fleet is nearing 500,000 vehicles.

EU Trade: Ankara is pressing to reset ties with Brussels as Türkiye-EU trade hits a record $233 billion and talks advance on modernizing the Customs Union. Energy Links: Türkiye is discussing a major electricity interconnector with Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, while seeking to make fuller use of existing gas and oil pipelines. Investment: A secure payment system for property sales becomes mandatory on December 1, holding funds until title transfer to curb fraud and cash transactions. Finance: The IMF cut Türkiye’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.7%; authorities have also pledged repayments of up to $20,000 to investors affected by the fund scandal. Trade Routes: Drone attacks on Black Sea shipping are raising insurance costs and threatening grain exports, adding pressure to regional supply chains. Battery Industry: EU-funded researchers produced recycled-material lithium-ion cells at a Turkish plant, a potential foothold for advanced battery manufacturing.

EU Trade: Türkiye-EU trade reached a record $233 billion as officials reported progress on modernising the Customs Union, though talks are advancing case by case. Markets and Growth: The central bank says it will keep monetary policy tight until price stability is secured, while the IMF has cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.7%. Industrial output fell 1.9% year on year in August; authorities are also moving to speed repayments to investors caught in the troubled-funds crisis. Defence Exports: Spain is planning to buy 15 more Turkish Hürjet trainer aircraft, potentially expanding its planned fleet to 45, though the additional order is not yet signed. Islamic Finance: At a London summit, Türkiye’s Wealth Fund chief said Islamic finance could help channel an estimated $500 billion in privately held gold into the Turkish economy. Business Climate: The state takeover of opposition broadcaster Halk TV, amid a criminal investigation, has renewed concerns about political pressure on independent media.

EU Trade: Türkiye and the EU have removed a trade barrier and advanced customs cooperation, as Ankara’s trade minister called for closer ties to strengthen economic security. Growth Outlook: The IMF cut Türkiye’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.7%, while seeing a rebound ahead. Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek said the current-account deficit should remain manageable. Fund Repayments: Authorities aim to liquidate half of troubled funds this week, and President Erdoğan pledged repayments of up to $20,000 in October as investors await relief from the fund crisis. Investment and Technology: Türkiye is targeting a 2030–32 launch for its first offshore wind project. Turkcell and TÜBİTAK have also tested locally made 6G solutions for the first time. Market Expansion: Chinese consumer brands are building a wider presence in Türkiye through local partnerships, while Turkish Airlines will increase Istanbul–Lagos service from seven to 10 weekly flights in December.

Fund Liquidation: Türkiye aims to settle 49 more troubled investment funds this week, after 17 funds returned 6.4 billion lira to investors. The crisis has affected nearly half a million people, and a bill setting repayment rules is due for parliamentary review. EU Trade: At a Brussels summit, Trade Minister Ömer Bolat urged closer Türkiye-EU cooperation on competitiveness and economic security. Bilateral trade exceeds $233 billion, while European capital accounts for about 70% of foreign investment in Türkiye. Economic Outlook: The IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye to 2.7%, while the country posted a $4 billion current-account surplus in August. Energy: Türkiye is targeting a 2030–32 launch for its first offshore wind project; industry estimates wind power could eventually trim the gas import bill by $4 billion a year.

Market & Industry: Chinese consumer-tech brands are expanding in Türkiye through local partnerships, while Stellantis estimated third-quarter shipments fell 1% year over year, citing a drop in the Turkish market. Factory Output: Türkiye’s industrial production fell 1.9% year over year in August, and auto production was down 6% in January–September. Fund Probe: Authorities are investigating suspected tipoffs linked to $8.1 billion in fund withdrawals; officials say 17 funds have settled as repayments resume. Energy: Wind power could cut Türkiye’s gas import bill by $4 billion a year, an industry group says. Exports: Hazelnut exports topped $1.9 billion in the first nine months, while fresh vegetable exports exceeded $822 million. Trade Links: A new rail section toward Bulgaria is set to strengthen Türkiye’s freight connection with Europe.

Fund Crisis: Erdoğan says repayments of up to ₺1 million in principal to affected investors are due this month, subject to legislation; payments have begun for some funds. Prosecutors are also examining whether tipoffs enabled investors to withdraw $8.1 billion before regulators intervened. Regional Energy Trade: Iraq currently imports 600 megawatts of electricity from Türkiye, with a second phase planned to raise capacity to nearly 2,000 megawatts. Trade Links: Türkiye opened the 153-kilometre Çerkezköy–Kapıkule rail section, a step toward faster passenger and freight links with Europe. Industry and Energy: Turkish auto production fell 6% in January–September, while an industry group says wind power could cut the country’s gas import bill by $4 billion a year.

COP31: As host of November’s Antalya climate summit, Türkiye has put its hosting agreement into force; the EU plans to press for stronger emissions cuts and practical action on climate pledges. Fund Probe: Accounts linked to 214 people and firms have reportedly been frozen as lawmakers consider a bill setting repayment terms for investors affected by fund liquidations. Energy & Infrastructure: Türkiye and Iraq are discussing an oil-for-financing deal to help fund the Development Road project, while Iraq is also looking to raise oil exports through Türkiye. Trade & Industry: Türkiye’s export climate reached its strongest level in 52 months in September, and the trade minister says the country has doubled its share of global manufacturing value added in two decades. Transport: Turkish Airlines carried 9 million passengers in one month and is increasing Lagos service from seven to 10 weekly flights; Türkiye has also opened an EU-backed rail link aimed at improving Europe–Central Asia connectivity.