AGP Executive Report

Regional Security: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement,” with a NATO-style “attack on one is attack on all” clause; Erdogan says the umbrella should grow beyond the three, while Egypt is still not on board. Energy & Trade Routes: The pact lands as shipping and energy corridors face pressure from the US-Iran standoff and Red Sea risks, keeping regional power-trade and security planning tightly linked. Transport Cooperation: Iraq and a Turkish delegation discussed turning an August transport MOU into actionable steps, flagging the “Development Road” railway work. Renewables & Power Links: Turkey is pursuing a new electricity corridor with Saudi Arabia via Jordan and Syria, aiming to expand regional interconnections and exports. Corporate/Finance: Esterad reported a Q2 and H1-2026 net loss and falling income. Business & Industry: Enercon returned to profitability, citing stronger demand in Germany and Turkey. Tech/Defense Watch: Ukraine says it found 5,816 foreign-made components in Russian weapons systems.

Middle East Security & Energy: Iran and the US remain deadlocked on reviving a June interim Gulf deal, with Tehran saying there’s been “absolutely no progress” and denying any 60-day ceasefire extension; meanwhile Trump again claims the US has “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz as shipping risks keep oil prices supported. Türkiye’s Regional Role: Erdoğan hosted Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas in Ankara, calling for swift Gaza reconstruction and condemning Israeli actions in the West Bank; separately, Erdoğan said the Türkiye-Saudi Arabia-Pakistan “Mecca” defense pact is a “grave historical responsibility” and not aimed at any country. Türkiye Energy Transition: Türkiye will launch its first offshore wind tender in Q1 2027, targeting 5 GW by 2035, with draft YEKA specs open for feedback until Aug. 17. Transport & Fuel Markets: Diesel supply in Ukraine saw a shortage in July despite higher imports, with market pressure linked to Middle East escalation and logistics. Business & Tech: Mastercard named Yasemin Bedir president of its EEMEA region, as fintech and mobile payments expand; and Türkiye’s US$58bn tech market is highlighted amid a surge in AI investment. Sports Business: Galatasaray ultras leader Sebahattin Şirin was placed under house arrest in an investigation tied to an unlicensed gun and match-related admissions.

Libya Energy Security: Drone strikes hit Libya’s Zawiya oil complex, sparking a major refinery blaze as firefighters battled fires after Monday’s attacks; a separate drone hit near an oil tank, while a car bomb in Benghazi killed a senior officer, underscoring how fragile security remains around critical infrastructure. Hormuz Risk for Markets: Oil prices tested $90 a barrel as Iran warned the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed unless Washington accepts Tehran’s conditions, while shipping attacks near the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea add pressure to global crude and LNG flows. Turkey–Pakistan–Health Cooperation: Pakistan’s health minister Mustafa Kamal met a Turkish delegation to expand technical cooperation, focusing on vaccine manufacturing, healthcare technology, regulatory systems and capacity building. Turkey–Regional Defense Politics: Saudi Arabia’s cabinet praised the “Makkah” trilateral summit with Türkiye and Pakistan, framing it as a long-term defense partnership and stressing protection of key waterways like Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb. Turkey Economy Watch: Capital Economics said Türkiye’s economy is still struggling to rebalance—an issue investors will be watching closely as industrial strength meets raw-material import dependence. Sports Business: Fenerbahçe agreed a €6m deal for Romelu Lukaku, aiming to end a title drought with a marquee striker.

Middle East Security: Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery was hit by a Houthi drone strike, with Saudi officials saying the fire was extinguished without casualties—raising pressure on the new Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan “Mecca” defense pact signed days earlier. Regional Shipping Risk: Yemen reported missile attacks on a vessel near Bab el-Mandeb, killing four and adding to fears for Red Sea and Hormuz-linked trade routes. Aviation & Trade Links: Istanbul Airport overtook London Heathrow as Europe’s busiest in July, with 8.15m passengers versus Heathrow’s 7.86m—while Heathrow renewed calls for a third runway amid US-Iran conflict-driven route shifts. Turkey’s Business & Policy: Türkiye is pushing its Zero Waste marine conservation model from Istanbul’s Tavşan Island to Antalya’s Üç Adalar, aiming to scale ecosystem protection ahead of COP31. Sports Business: Turkish authorities detained journalist Burhan Can Terzi over claims Galatasaray agreed to sign Jamal Musiala; the club had denied the report. Tech & Investment: A report highlights Türkiye’s AI push, with plans for major data center capacity and training targets as the tech market expands.

PKK Reintegration Law: Turkey’s parliament approved a “National Solidarity” bill to facilitate PKK dissolution and reintegration, with conditional sentence suspensions and possible releases for thousands, excluding serious crimes; the measures hinge on a National Security Council confirmation that the group has surrendered weapons. Mecca Defense Pact Fallout: Saudi Aramco’s Jizan refinery was hit after the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Mecca pact, with Houthis claiming a drone strike and also targeting the Mokha port—raising questions about how quickly the new alliance can deter attacks. Hormuz Negotiations & Oil: Iran said Strait of Hormuz reopening depends on U.S. concessions including sanctions relief and compensation, while oil jumped around 5% as demands for war damages clouded any deal timeline. Turkey’s Foreign Policy: Hakan Fidan said Ankara supports peace efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan and backs a security-and-economic architecture for the South Caucasus. Business & Trade Links: Finance Minister Dr. Swarnim Wagle urged multinationals to expand investment and jobs in Nepal, while a Turkish firm (Kolaysoft) signed an MoU with Iraq for smart water management. Energy Deal Scrutiny: Ghanaian officials’ Aksa Energy equipment due diligence in Istanbul drew renewed attention after a U.S. bribery conviction tied to the power project.

Regional Security & Defense: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan and Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif defended the new “Mecca” joint defense pact as defensive and open to others, while analysts warn it could complicate regional power balances and raise stakes around Israel, Iran, and India. Energy & Trade Disruption: The Strait of Hormuz standoff remains unresolved as Iran ties reopening to US concessions and passage fees, keeping oil and shipping volatility high. Turkey’s Markets & Policy: The Turkish central bank reportedly bought $5bn in FX last week, lifting net reserves, while Turkey’s industrial production fell 1.4% in June. Power & Renewables: GlobalData says Turkey’s first offshore wind tender could reshape the generation mix, but execution and permitting will decide outcomes. Business & Finance: Mastercard appointed Yasemin Bedir to lead EEMEA; Freedom Holding Corp. reported strong Q1 growth and expanded its banking footprint via a Turkish bank stake. Construction & Infrastructure Abroad: A World Bank update flags Cambodia’s property downturn and rising non-performing loans, steering Turkish contractors toward municipal infrastructure and affordable housing rather than luxury real estate. Tech & Consumer: Beko’s Primax TV line launched in Bangladesh via Singer, highlighting Turkish consumer electronics exports. Governance & Transparency: Bulgaria’s court overturned a Bulgargaz refusal to share gas delivery/payment details tied to BOTAS agreements, underscoring public information access.

Mecca Defence Pact: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed a NATO-style mutual defence deal in Mecca, with an attack on one treated as an attack on all; Turkish FM Hakan Fidan said it is technically equivalent to NATO’s Article 5, while Egypt is flagged as a possible future member. Hormuz Energy Shock: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until the US “corrects” its behavior, including compensation, sanctions relief and lifting a counterblockade; Iran also links reopening to conditions tied to a near-final Oman shipping-lanes arrangement, keeping oil prices supported and Gulf markets cautious. Türkiye Defence Industry: STM launched the third and final light corvette for Malaysia, integrating systems from around 50 Turkish firms, with delivery targeted for 2027—another sign of Türkiye’s defence export push. Turkish-Linked Aviation: Royal Brunei Airlines expanded its codeshare with Turkish Airlines, adding an Istanbul route via Kuala Lumpur, boosting connectivity for business and leisure travel. Energy Diplomacy Watch: Turkey’s broader regional energy and logistics agenda remains in focus as Hormuz disruption continues to ripple through trade and shipping routes.

Mideast Security: Iran says the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen until the US “corrects” its behavior, demands compensation, sanctions relief and asset releases, while the UAE claims an Iranian missile targeted one of its ships and Houthis report attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities and a Red Sea port. Defense Pact: Pakistan’s FM Ishaq Dar and Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan reiterated the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan “Makkah” joint defense deal is “purely defensive,” not aimed at Iran or any other state, and is open to other countries—while the pact’s mutual-attack clause mirrors NATO’s Article 5 logic. Black Sea Trade: Bloomberg reports Turkey has temporarily restricted permits for some commercial vessels heading to Russia’s Novorossiysk (and possibly Ukraine), adding friction to already strained shipping routes. Ukraine Arms: The US notified Congress of a proposed transfer from Turkish stocks to Ukraine, including 70 M39 ATACMS missiles and 12 M270 MLRS launchers, plus large quantities of cluster rockets and artillery shells. Domestic Law: Turkey’s parliament approved tougher child protection sentencing rules, limiting sentence reductions for serious crimes by minors. Business & Markets: Turkish Petroleum is set to begin offshore drilling in Pakistan, aiming to attract investment; meanwhile, Turkish Airlines reported strong passenger numbers and earnings, and Aselsan posted revenue growth in H1.

Strait of Hormuz Shock: Iran says the waterway won’t reopen until the US “corrects its behaviour,” demands an end to the war, naval blockade lift, sanctions removal and “complete compensation,” while the UAE claims an Iranian missile targeted an ADNOC vessel. Black Sea Shipping Pressure: Turkey urged a “moratorium” on Black Sea attacks after strikes on civilian shipping, and restricted some commercial vessel access amid drone incidents. Kurdish Peace Law Moves: A Turkish parliament justice committee adopted a “National Solidarity” bill under the Terror-Free Türkiye process, setting rules for suspending cases and proceedings tied to the PKK/KCK after security authorities determine it has ended its de facto existence. Iraq Water Security Spend: Iraq’s cabinet approved about $3.82M to fight water hyacinth and tackle pollution risks on the Tigris and Euphrates, including saltwater intrusion measures. Saudi Energy Incident: A fire at Saudi Aramco’s Jazan facility was extinguished with no injuries reported, as regional targeting reports circulate. Regional Defense Pact: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan said the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan “Mecca” defense agreement is technically like NATO’s Article 5 but “not directed” at any country.

Mecca Defense Pact: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed a NATO-style mutual defense deal in Mecca, saying an attack on one will be treated as an attack on all—while analysts question how far the clause would go as the trio seeks negotiated ways to end the Iran conflict. Turkey’s Energy Push: TPAO targets a jump in oil and gas output to nearly 600,000 boe/d by 2028, driven by Sakarya and overseas projects, including a planned 15% Kirkuk-area stake. Iraq–Hormuz Routing: Iraq’s oil minister said exports are down to 1.5–1.7m bpd (from ~3.4m) and talks continue to diversify routes, including a Basra–Fishkhabour BOT pipeline plan. Turkey–Azerbaijan Gas Cooperation: Energy minister Alparslan Bayraktar said Türkiye is ready to implement projects in Azerbaijan’s oil and gas fields and highlighted a 33 bcm/15-year gas supply deal starting in 2029. Black Sea Security: A drone with explosives detonated near Bulgaria’s Trans-Balkan gas pipeline, prompting cordons and investigations; separately, reports say a crippled oil carrier in the Black Sea led to the return of six Filipino seafarers to Manila. Corruption Case Linked to Turkish Firms: Ghana’s justice officials said they’re working with US authorities after the US conviction of former Goldman Sachs banker Asante Kwaku Berko over alleged bribes tied to a power plant deal involving a Turkish energy company. Trade/Transit Dispute: A Turkish opposition MP claimed Iraq’s oil transit fees owed to Turkey vanished after routing via a Jersey offshore entity, citing audit and court-of-accounts documents.

PKK Framework Bill: Türkiye submitted a “Bill on Strengthening National Solidarity and Social Integration” to parliament, setting up sentence deferrals for PKK guerrillas in exchange for the party’s liquidation, but with major loopholes and outcomes dependent on Ankara’s word. Regional Security Pact: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, saying an attack on one would be treated as an attack on all, while Ankara insists it’s not aimed at any specific country; Iran immediately dismissed it as a “paper agreement.” Energy Trade & Shipping: Iraq and Türkiye agreed a one-year oil pipeline deal to move 750,000 barrels per day via Kirkuk-Ceyhan, as Strait of Hormuz traffic remains disrupted amid US-Iran tensions; oil prices rose on expectations of an Iran-Oman path to reopen the strait. Turkish Markets & Business: Pakistan’s PSX fell on risk-off sentiment tied to Middle East escalation, while Türkiye’s defense exports and industrial activity continue to draw attention, including Aselsan’s latest sensor work and ongoing regional defense cooperation. Corporate/Finance Watch: A former Goldman Sachs executive was convicted in the US over a Ghana power-sector bribery scheme involving a Turkish energy link. Sports-Economy Angle: Mohamed Salah’s blockbuster move to Trabzonspor is driving fresh spotlight on the club and Turkish football’s commercial pull.

Mecca Joint Defence Pact: Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement,” pledging that an armed attack on any one would be treated as an attack on all, with officials stressing it is defensive and not aimed at any specific country; Turkish leaders also said the pact could spill into economic cooperation. Regional Security Debate: Analysts and media framed the deal as a potential new “Islamic NATO”-style security architecture amid heightened Iran-linked tensions, while Saudi officials warned of possible coordinated attacks involving Houthis and Iraqi militias. Turkey’s Defence Industry Push: ASELSAN tested its Tolun-P precision bunker-busting munition from a Bayraktar Akıncı drone, underlining Türkiye’s growing role in defence exports and interoperability. Trade & Markets Watch: A report said Russian steel exports have shifted toward Turkey and the CIS as EU tariffs tighten, raising pricing and competition risks for exporters. Climate Finance Delay: COP31 implementation talks in Bonn again deferred key decisions, leaving developing countries short on climate funding tools. Counter-Terror Ops: Turkey detained 104 suspected IS members in nationwide gendarmerie operations, reinforcing internal security priorities.

Turkey-Armenia Corridor Talks: Armenia says it discussed “technical issues” with U.S.-appointed TRIPP “Trump Route” facilitator Aryeh Lightstone, aiming to speed up a border-linked rail/road/energy corridor connecting Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan to Turkey. Labor Rights: Turkish workers backed U.S. Mack Trucks union candidate Will Lehman after a death threat posted by a senior UAW official; Lehman’s legal win included stripping the official of union rights. Defense Exports: Mali’s junta received another batch of Turkish Bayraktar AKINCI strike drones, underscoring Ankara’s growing defense footprint in West Africa. Middle East Energy Risk: Iran warns Gulf states—including Turkey—of retaliation against energy and infrastructure if U.S. strikes resume, while Saudi Arabia braces for coordinated attacks involving Iraqi militias and Houthis. Turkish Business & Trade: Russia’s fertilizer exports to Turkey jumped 4.2x in June; Georgia’s exports to Turkey rose 57.3% in Jan–Jun. Corporate/Markets: Diageo unveiled a restructuring to nearly double Guinness output while cutting jobs. Sports Business: Trabzonspor confirmed Mohamed Salah on a €17m-a-season deal, with salary and image-rights terms filed to Borsa Istanbul.

Salah Deal Boosts Turkish Football Economy: Trabzonspor confirmed Mohamed Salah’s two-year signing, reportedly at €17m per season, with €10m salary plus €7m signing payments, conditional bonuses and a 20% image-rights share—an eye-catching commercial move that could lift fan spending and sports-brand partnerships. Air Connectivity for Fans: Turkish Airlines announced direct Cairo–Trabzon flights to serve expected Egyptian demand after Salah’s arrival, with the first departure set for Aug. 11. Corporate Results Watch: Turkish Airlines posted $197m net profit in Q2 2026, with revenues up to $7.2bn and cargo revenue up 58%, while load factor hit a record 84%. Energy & Trade Risk: Black Sea shipping rates reportedly jumped up to fourfold as drone attacks and war-risk surcharges disrupt routes tied to Turkey and Russia. Environment & Industry: Turkey approved an environmental impact assessment for expanding a chromite mine in Burdur’s forestland to 721 hectares, allowing open-pit and underground operations. Regional Diplomacy: Iran warned Gulf states—including Turkey—of potential strikes on oil, power and water infrastructure if U.S. attacks on Iran resume, pushing for renewed diplomacy. Digital Growth: Google appointed Turkish engineer Koray Kavukcuoglu as senior VP at DeepMind, expanding Turkey’s footprint in global AI leadership.

Middle East Energy Tensions: Iran warned Gulf states that any new US attack on Iranian territory would trigger retaliation against critical energy infrastructure across the region, after Trump threatened strikes on Iran’s energy network. Shipping & Hormuz Talks: Iran and Oman agreed on Strait of Hormuz shipping route coordinates, but Iran stressed the strait won’t be fully reopened while US port pressure continues. Black Sea Commodity Disruptions: Escalating attacks in the Black Sea are disrupting grain and oil exports, adding fresh strain to global commodity flows. Türkiye Security Law: Turkey submitted a “Terror-Free Türkiye” bill to parliament that would defer investigations and convictions only after PKK/KCK disarmament and verified dissolution, with a parliamentary review set to start. 2016 Coup Probe: Turkish authorities arrested a suspect linked to the 2016 coup attempt, described as a former army captain and helicopter pilot. Cybercrime: A Canadian man pleaded guilty in the US Snowflake cloud breach case involving data theft from 165 organizations and extortion. Business/Finance: Swift’s new global retail transfer initiative is going live with Bank of America and J.P. Morgan, including improved transfers to and from Turkey. Sports & Economy: Mohamed Salah’s Trabzonspor move is reported as a major wage jump in the Turkish league, with fans welcoming him in Istanbul.

Court Protection Watch: Turkish packaging maker Barem Ambalaj filed for concordato (court protection from creditors), citing a €200mn Konya expansion plan and tough macro conditions; Izmir’s court granted a three-month moratorium while Izmir, Gaziantep and Karaman plants keep running. Peace Process & Law: Turkey’s ruling alliance submitted a “Terror-Free Türkiye” framework bill to parliament to suspend investigations and sentences tied to PKK/KCK—excluding intentional killings and other serious crimes—pending security institutions’ determination and MGK verification. Travel Security: Kaspersky says travel scams are surging, detecting nearly 270,000 cyberattack attempts impersonating brands; Emirates leads transport-brand impersonation at 61%, with Turkish Airlines among targets. Aviation Earnings: Turkish Airlines reported H1 net profit of $395.2m on 43% higher revenue, but Q2 profit fell as jet fuel costs and operating expenses rose. Energy Trade: BOTAŞ and Iraq’s SOMO/NOC signed a one-year crude transport deal allocating up to 750,000 bpd via Kirkuk–Ceyhan, aiming to boost Iraq’s share beyond the current ~10%. Sports Business: Mohamed Salah arrived in Istanbul for an expected free-transfer signing with Trabzonspor, drawing major fan turnout and renewed debate across Turkey’s big clubs.